71 Comments 2024-07-01

Fed Minutes: Divided on 50bps Rate Cut, Reduced Inflation Risks

The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed that Federal Reserve officials were divided on the extent of rate cuts at the September interest rate meeting. The vast majority supported the larger cut that was ultimately approved, but some also favored a smaller reduction of 25 basis points.

According to a report by the American financial website CNBC, Federal Reserve officials agreed on a rate cut at the September meeting, but were uncertain about the magnitude of the cut. The vast majority of attendees favored a reduction of 50 basis points, but some expressed concerns about cutting such a large amount.

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The report stated that some Federal Reserve officials preferred a smaller rate cut, just a quarter of a percentage point, as they sought to ensure that inflation remained low and were less concerned about employment conditions. In the end, only one Federal Open Market Committee member, Governor Michelle Bowman, voted against the half-percentage-point rate cut. Since 2005, the Federal Reserve has been known for its unified monetary policy, and this was the first time a governor dissented in a rate vote.

The report mentioned that since the Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. economic indicators have shown that the labor market may be stronger than officials who supported a 50 basis point rate hike had anticipated.

The minutes stated that the vote to approve a 50 basis point rate cut was "considering the balance of risks to inflation progress and the labor market."

Additionally, according to Reuters, there are differing views within the Federal Reserve on the current tightness of monetary policy, with some emphasizing the need to communicate externally that even with rate cuts, the reduction of the balance sheet (quantitative tightening) may continue.

The minutes also wrote: "Almost all attendees believed that the upside risks to the inflation outlook have diminished, while the downside risks to the employment outlook have increased. Therefore, these attendees now assess that the risks to achieving the dual mandate goals of the (FOMC) committee are roughly balanced."

In terms of inflation, the minutes showed that almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation have diminished, confidence in inflation continuing to converge towards 2% has increased, and listed some factors that may continue to exert downward pressure on inflation, including a further moderate slowdown in real GDP growth due to the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening; well-anchored inflation expectations; and softening global commodity prices.